One of the most persistent arguments among those who resist the prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that Antarctica isn't warming at all, but actually getting cooler. Some parrot this particular talking point because a few studies have shown the interior of the continent gaining snow mass, even though that's what the climate models say global warming will do to the place.
Other, slightly more sophisticated critics say the real problem is a lack of evidence that Antarctica is experiencing any changes that can be attributed to human-caused, or anthropogenic, factors. Now that argument will be harder to make.
In a paper titled "Attribution of polar warming to human influence" appearing today in Nature Geoscience, an international team of climatologists led by Nathan Gillett of the University of East Anglia report that their analysis of Arctic and Antarctic temperature trends finds the opposite to be case. "In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the anthropogenic regression coefficient is significantly greater than zero," they write, which translates to "we're fairly confident that what's going on at both ends of the Earth has something to do with our fiddling with the levels of greenhouse gases in the air."
Gillett's team cranked recent observation through simulations run on computer climate models and found that the only way to explain the rises (and falls) in temperatures is to invoke non-natural forces. The Arctic runs are based on a century of observations, while the Antarctic runs can only draw on 50 years of data, yet statistically significant results emerged for both.
This is only one study, but given that others have found strong anthropogenic signals on the West Antarctic Peninsula, and given what's going on at the North Pole -- 2008's summer ocean melt didn't quite match 2007's in terms of area, it turns out that the total mass of ice hit a record low last month -- the denial camp really should give up trying to argue the science supports its stubborn refusal to get with the program.
James Hrynyshyn's blog posts are provided by LifeWire, a part of The New York Times Company.
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