Forecast Earth

Another nail in the climate denial coffin

One of the most persistent arguments among those who resist the prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that Antarctica isn't warming at all, but actually getting cooler. Some parrot this particular talking point because a few studies have shown the interior of the continent gaining snow mass, even though that's what the climate models say global warming will do to the place.

Other, slightly more sophisticated critics say the real problem is a lack of evidence that Antarctica is experiencing any changes that can be attributed to human-caused, or anthropogenic, factors. Now that argument will be harder to make.

In a paper titled "Attribution of polar warming to human influence" appearing today in Nature Geoscience, an international team of climatologists led by Nathan Gillett of the University of East Anglia report that their analysis of Arctic and Antarctic temperature trends finds the opposite to be case. "In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the anthropogenic regression coefficient is significantly greater than zero," they write, which translates to "we're fairly confident that what's going on at both ends of the Earth has something to do with our fiddling with the levels of greenhouse gases in the air."

Gillett's team cranked recent observation through simulations run on computer climate models and found that the only way to explain the rises (and falls) in temperatures is to invoke non-natural forces. The Arctic runs are based on a century of observations, while the Antarctic runs can only draw on 50 years of data, yet statistically significant results emerged for both.

This is only one study, but given that others have found strong anthropogenic signals on the West Antarctic Peninsula, and given what's going on at the North Pole -- 2008's summer ocean melt didn't quite match 2007's in terms of area, it turns out that the total mass of ice hit a record low last month -- the denial camp really should give up trying to argue the science supports its stubborn refusal to get with the program.

James Hrynyshyn's blog posts are provided by LifeWire, a part of The New York Times Company.

 


Email IM Bookmark del.icio.us Digg

You do not appear to have Yahoo! Messenger installed. Click here to download and install it.

Email this article

There is a problem with one or more email addresses entered

Enter email addresses, separated by commas.

There is a problem with the email address entered

Email addresses will only be used to email this information on your behalf and will not be used for any marketing purposes.

comments from our community

Showing 1 - 4 of 4 comments

Post Comment
  • Posted by David C Mon Nov 3, 2008 6:13am PST
    Anything based on computer Models will end up being flawed you fool!
    Report Abuse
  • Posted by new_guy_in_chi Mon Nov 3, 2008 6:18am PST
    As a working meteorologist I deal with many computer forecast models on a daily basis. Each has their own mixture of bias, foible and outright error. For us to get a five day prediction spot-on is a miracle, to get a result you find conclusive for a 50 year run is absurd. Simulations are great, but they aren't hard science. In the 80's the same type of long-range models were predicting doomsday scenarios for what is now present day. For all of the hyperventilating that goes on about global warming, the impacts to date are beneath the notice of 99% of humanity. The doomsday scenario simply hasn't panned out, and that has eroded my confidence in long-range simulations to just about nil.
    Report Abuse
  • Posted by mkgreenwood Mon Nov 3, 2008 4:15pm PST
    Quantum physics explains the process of absorption of specific wavelengths of the energy spectrum by molecules, atoms, parts of molecules,etc. O2 happens to absorb ultraviolet energy and becomes Ozone O3 which also absorbs Ultraviolet at a slightly lower wavelength. The bigger gaseous molecules like water, Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Sulfur Oxides, are good at absorbing energy at the infrared region which is heat. If we are burning carbon based fuels we are using up the surplus molecular Oxygen that took 3.5 billion years to amount to what was in our atmosphere before the burning of Carbon based fuels. Kiss our life on Earth goodbye.
    Report Abuse
  • Posted by Protestthisone Mon Nov 3, 2008 9:31pm PST
    For those who know for a fact that the global climate change is a very real and growing problem it is frustrating that some people are so out of touch with this reality. The ice caps are melting and polar bears and seals are falling through ever thinning ice, or on ice hunks that break off and drift out to sea. The result is drowning and starvation of a ever decreasing species on the brink of complete demise. For those who still have their head in the sand and don't think climate change is a real thing I can only say "GET SMART" and get educated in the reality of it. As floods, tornados, wild fires, hurricanes, and changes in temperatures increase there will be more disease, hunger, death and destruction for all life on this planet. The whole life support system is in jeopardy. This is a real problem that if left ignored with make the other economic, education, wars, and healthcare problems look like nothing.
    Report Abuse

Leave a Comment:

You must first sign in.

Green Picks Playlist